Sabres win streak: Is it for real this time?

10 wins in a row.

Imagine telling that to a Buffalo Sabres fan after the brutal 7-4 loss to Calgary that dropped their record to 11-14-4. And imagine telling them they would have a new GM and that Marc Bergevin would also join the front office.

We are in the midst of the good times in Sabreland, but there also has not been a hockey fanbase that has been more tortured by false hope this past decade quite like Sabres fans. There’s certainly a lot of hope now, but it will always be cautious hope until the drought is broken.

So let’s dive into the numbers of the Sabres’ current winning streak and see how this team compares.

2018/19 win streak vs. 2025/26 win streak

The first thing that likely comes to mind when the words “10-game win streak” are uttered is the Sabres infamous win streak of 2018. Flashbacks of Jeff Skinner netting an OT winner against the Sharks or people going crazy at the World’s Largest Disco after Sam Reinhart’s shootout goal against the Red Wings.

I would like to officially title the 2018/19 10-game win streak as the goofiest win streak of all-time because, well, it just was. We will likely never see a 10-game stretch of hockey like that run that results in 10 wins ever again.

This chart from Evolving-Hockey from 2021 that had all 10+ game winning streaks since 2007/08 is something that has been engraved in my memory regarding that 2018 win streak:

Of these 28 win streaks of 10+ games, the 2018/19 Sabres win streak ranked dead last in 5v5 Goals For %, Corsi For %, and Expected Goals For %.

25 of the 28 win streaks involved a team with a 50 xGF% or greater at 5v5. The Sabres rung in at a bad 43.3 xGF%, well below that 50 xGF% mark.

During the time span of that win streak (November 8, 2018 to November 27, 2018) the Sabres actually ranked dead last in the NHL in 5v5 xGF%. The only outscored opponents by 2 goals at 5v5 during that win streak, but they somehow won 10 games (the 4 OT wins and 3 shootout wins may have helped).

Where would this current 2025/26 Sabres win streak 5v5 numbers rank on the above chart? Their 49.2 CF% would come it at 26th of 29 and their 49.1 xGF% would also come in at 26th of 29. So not as “once-in-a-lifetime” as the 2018/19 Sabres win streak, but some luck (and goaltending) is certainly still involved.

How about we break this down to a game-by-game level using expected goals at 5v5. Sure, it’s not a perfect measure of who deserved to win the game as it ignores special teams and penalty differential. But it gives of a general idea of who was out-chancing who at the base level of the game: 5v5 play. It also helps us filter out the really bad and/or good games that would sway a 10-game sample size.

The 2018/19 win streak saw the Sabres win the 5v5 expected goals battle in 3 of their 10 games while the 2025/26 win streak has seen the Sabres win it in 5 of their 10 games.

It is worth noting that these numbers from Evolving-Hockey are “score & venue adjusted” so they do take into account the fact that the Sabres were leading during a lot of these games (teams tend to get out-chanced while trying to maintain a lead).

So there is some “luck” involved in the Sabres current win streak. The team’s all-situation .933 SV% over their last 10 games ranks top in the NHL. This is coming from a goaltending corps that had an .883 SV% (23rd in NHL) prior to this run. Goaltending will probably come back to earth at some point.

But does this mean the Sabres are a “bad” team giving us false hope? Absolutely not, the Eastern Conference will be a dog fight this season and picking up points wherever and whenever is crucial to remain competitive this season.

Reasons to be encouraged

Now I don’t want this to come off of as a “the win streak is a bubble” type of article, so I will go over three reasons why I am encouraged by this Sabres win streak:

#1. The last three games
I mentioned earlier that the Sabres have won the 5v5 expected goal battle in five of their ten games during this win streak. Well three of those games where they won the expected goal battle actually took place in their last three games. In fact, their three best games of the win streak by expected goal differential took place in these last three games.

The Sabres have been humming since last Saturday’s game. At 5v5, they have outshot their opponents 86 to 56 and have won the xG battle 8.2 to 5.1. The Sabres completely shutdown two weaker teams in Boston and St. Louis. They followed that up by going into Dallas and taking down a top team while playing slightly above their level.

#2. The bigger picture
The Sabres have played 39 games this season, so if we zoom out of this 10-game win streak we can see that the team has some pretty respectable 5v5 numbers. On the season, they have 50.9 xGF% at 5v5 which currently ranks 11th in the NHL.

The last time the Sabres managed to put together greater than a 50 xGF% in an entire season was 2010/11. Funny enough, this was also the last season they played postseason hockey:

5v5 expected goals for percentage is a great measure for baseline team play. The majority of the game is played at 5v5 and expected goals give us a good idea of who is out-chancing who in an NHL game and by how much.

Sure there are some things that won’t be picked up in this statistic like goaltending, penalty differential, special teams quality, shooting, and even just pure luck. But 5v5 expected play is the foundation that the house is built upon and a solid foundation is important.

With breakeven 5v5 expected play the Sabres can have a season where they don’t need to shoot lights out, they don’t need their goalie to turn into prime Dominik Hasek, they don’t need to have a top five power play in the league. If the Sabres can play a sustainable brand of hockey where they rely less upon things with high variance it will greatly increase their odds of breaking the playoff drought.

#3. The right guys stepping up at the right time
I do not think there is any denying the fact that Owen Power had a disappointing start to the season. With his pedigree and his paycheck comes higher expectations and he did not live up to those.

But Power has been playing much better hockey as of late, so I was interested in seeing how he managed last Saturday’s game against the Bruins with Rasmus Dahlin out. Well he was nothing short of dominant, shots were 20 to 3 in favor of the Sabres when he was on the ice at 5v5 that night.

Here’s a crazy stat: the Sabres have outshot their opponent 42 to 17 with Owen Power on the ice at 5v5 their last three games.

Speaking of defensemen, how about Bowen Byram? He has 3 goals and 7 points in his last 5 games, his finishing ability has been impressive for a defenseman which is always useful for a player who steps up into plays:

So while the Sabres may not be fully deserving of a 10-game win streak according to the statistics (really who ever is?) they are playing some legitimately solid hockey for the first time in over a decade.

This win streak has put them right back into the mix in the Eastern Conference and has set them up for some entertaining hockey these next few months.

So let’s enjoy it, this fanbase deserves it.