Sabres Mailbag: UPL's future, Doan thriving

Welcome to the first edition of our Sabres Mailbag for The Charge where I answer your questions on the Buffalo Sabres.

In this week’s edition I answer questions from my followers on X with topics ranging from Ukko Pekka-Luukkonen to the team’s future cap situation. So let’s get into it:

“Good or bad, what’s been most surprising about the Sabres so far?” - @MrEd315

Despite a somewhat expected 3-4-0 start with this Sabres groups, I think there have been a few surprises with the Sabres so far this season.

In terms of what has been the most surprising I will have to go with how quickly Josh Doan has adjusted to a larger role on the Buffalo Sabres this season. He was averaging 13:31 TOI last season already seeing an average of 15:31 TOI this season. He even saw 18:58 TOI against Detroit on Wednesday.

Doan has been excelling in this increased role too. He already has 6 points in 7 games (only had 19 in 51 last season) and leads the Sabres forwards with a 66.8 xGF% at 5v5 according to Evolving-Hockey.

I mean just look at his 5v5 xGF% compared to his teammates. The Sabres simply play better when Josh Doan is on the ice:

“Why do people only live in the "points make the level of impact a player is"? See Benson and Doan” - @SabreGreg87

You know the NHL is a sport with a lot of games and a lot of teams. Even for your favorite team it is difficult to be able to tune in to all 82 games. So it makes sense why points, especially for forwards, are used as a measure for talent.

Most of the time points can be a fine enough measure for talent. But there are a lot of blind spots with just using points (ice time, linemates, opponents, etc.). And I do think the “all-around” players like Zach Benson and Josh Doan could have been overlooked by some heading into this season.

But the points have been coming for both of those players this season. They may not continue at the same pace, but both guys should have career-high seasons.

“Are Lyon (and Ellis) on a Linsanity run right now or should UPL be legit worried?” - @DadRockEnjoyer

Should Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen be worried? I will say both yes and no, because goalies are so impossible to predict.

I will say yes he should be worried because Alex Lyon is off to a fantastic start and looks to be every bit of a #1 goalie. His 7.5 GSAx (goals saved above expected) places him top 5 in the NHL in that category.

And then there’s Colten Ellis who had 2.27 GSAx in his NHL debut on Wednesday. He certainly looks like a goalie who deserves a longer look at the NHL level, especially after making saves like this:

And I will say no, he shouldn’t be worried, because UPL was the Sabres #1 goalie the past two seasons. Sure he wasn’t great last season, but he does have the history with the organization that the other two guys do not have. He may not be the starter but he should be given a longer leash than someone like Ellis.

As of today the Sabres have three goalies on their NHL roster. Do I have any idea how they manage this? No and I am certainly not envious of the guy who has to figure out how to manage this.

“Why do they manage to lose guys in the slot all the time? Both Red Wings goals happened because of this. One looked like a terrible switch, other was just completely losing track.” - @jsoucia

You know sometimes giving up slots in the shot is just pure unluckiness or just great skill from the other team. One slight deflection of a passed puck can spoil a prime slot shot opportunity. I think that was the case on at least one goal against Detroit.

Though relative to rest of the league, the Sabres are not giving up a crazy amount of slot shots. They are giving up a good amount of shots in the immediate net front though and have had a few issues with tying up sticks in close.

“We seem to almost lose a player to injury EVERY game. Norris, Danforth, Bryson, Zucker, 4 players down in 7 games not to mention UPL lasted 1 period, and all the others. I don’t see any other NHL team have such injuries. What is going on?” - @LeslieEricSimon

I think it’s a mix of multiple things here. There is a bit of an unlucky factor here, but the Sabres have also been fairly unafraid in acquiring injury-prone players as shown by the Josh Norris trade. Even Bowen Byram had a rough injury history before his acquisition despite being relatively injury free in Buffalo.

However, the Sabres as a whole have been fairly lucky with their big time players staying relatively healthy. So I don’t really think there’s a major organizational issue here outside of them maybe being too eager to trade for injury-prone players.

“With the Sabres needing to pay Benson, Doan, Kesselring and Tuch at the end of the season (and Bryson/Krebs as is tradition) - will they have enough money and if not who should go?” - @nfronczek82

There’s still a lot of story left to be written this season with Benson, Doan, and Kesselring. There is certainly a chance where all three of those guys can earn a good bit of change on their next deal with good seasons.

With Alex Tuch the question is obviously whether he will sign in Buffalo because he will likely demand a lot of money after playing the majority of his NHL career thus far on a bargain contract.

So let’s just assume the Sabres have a great season because of Doan, Benson, and Kesselring. Tuch wants to re-sign because the Sabres had such a great season. The cap would certainly get a little tight in 2026/27, even with the cap rising higher than projected.

So I would look at a guy like Jordan Greenway who will have one more year left on his deal with a $4M cap hit. His role could likely be filled with a cheaper internal option if moved.

Then there’s someone like Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. He has a $4.75M cap hit until 2029. The Sabres have Lyon signed through next season. Devon Levi will have to go through waivers next season. Colten Ellis looks interesting. Something has to budge there and it could be UPL’s contract.

“What’s more important in current nhl style goaltending. Having a better blocker or a good hand?” - @PhilPhil192319

With a greater focus on players getting shots off from higher danger areas, I would argue that a good blocker can become increasingly important with more shots coming from in close.

But you can also argue that the glove becomes increasingly important to prevent rebounds in this situation. It’s not always easy to deflect a puck away to safety. So I could honestly see the argument for either.

“UPL and a pick/prospect for Rossi?” - Matthew J.

I am a huge fan of Marco Rossi and still believe that should have been a forward they pushed hard to acquire this summer (as well as Zachary Bolduc). However, I do not believe the goalie situation in Minnesota is close to dire enough for them to consider a trade for UPL in net.

“Realistic UPL and Tuch packages? Also, your top choices for Adams and Ruff replacements?” - @CollinsBVB

I do not want to be the one that has to say this but I could see UPL and Tuch both having trade values lower than people expect. Now I have been wrong before and I am not the one making phone calls to other GMs, but I think both guys are in situations that limit their trade value relative to their on-ice value.

With Alex Tuch, it’s just the contract. He is a player that playoff teams covet, but he is in the final year of his bargain contract and will be due a lot of money next offseason with the rising cap. Some teams may only view him as a rental and the Sabres certainly missed the opportunity to trade him at a higher value as a playoff guy on a bargain contract with term.

With UPL, he is bouncing back from an injury and a not so great 2024/25 season. He also has a $4.75M cap hit until 2029. Goalies also do not demand that much in trades. Jacob Markstrom (a more proven asset than UPL) only went for a 1st and Kevin Bahl.

So I have a difficult time coming up with a realistic trade package for either player at this stage of the season. It will certainly be tough to execute a non-futures focused trade for either, especially for a playoff rental like Alex Tuch. Maybe you can combine the two and get something useful. I would love to find a way to get someone like Troy Terry from Anaheim, but even that seems unrealistic.

Kevyn Adams replacement? I think Jarmo Kekalainen isn’t the sexiest pick but is someone who is already in the organization (but not long enough to be associated with the bad stuff) and has worked his way around a similar market to Buffalo when he was the GM in Columbus. I have a hard time believing the Sabres will not prioritize experience in their potential future GM search.

Lindy Ruff replacement? Once again I think the Sabres will value experience here as well, even if they do go rebuild if this season fails and the player unhappiness boils over. So whatever the biggest veteran name available at the time of their search would be my guess.