11 Thoughts on the Sabres: It's a rollercoaster

Winning a few games to get back to .500 and then losing in an ugly fashion has been the story of the 2025/26 Sabres season so far.

But… it’s not all bad. There are some encouraging signs with the team’s underlying numbers.

So let’s dive into all of that in this week’s edition of 11 Thoughts on the Sabres:

1. The underlying numbers

Am I going to start a newsletter after a soul-crushing loss to the Philadelphia Flyers off with an “underlying numbers” comment. Yes.

The king of all underlying numbers, 5v5 expected goals for percentage, is a statistic where the Sabres have not been on the other side of 50% since the 2010/11 season. Basically this means that the accumulated expected goals from their opponent has been greater than their accumulated expected goals for the entirety of the playoff drought.

This is an important statistic because it is the foundation on which all teams are built on. Sure there’s going to be things that cause a team to underperform their expected goals such as goaltending, shooting, rush chances, and poor net front coverage. There’s also parts of the game that aren’t at 5v5 like special teams, even penalty differential is important.

But the lion’s share of the game is played at 5v5, so when you’re constantly out-chancing your opponents at that state you will not have to rely on your goalie turning into prime Hasek or your third line winger turning into prime Ovechkin to sneak out a win. You can just play your game and win more often than not with just standard shooting and goaltending.

According to Evolving-Hockey, he Sabres are currently rocking a 50.8 xGF% at 5v5 so far this season. There’s still a lot of hockey to be played, but it is an encouraging sign for a team who has yet to crack the 50 xGF% mark on a season during the drought era. They haven’t even broke the 49 xGF% mark during the drought (highest was a 48.9 xGF% in 2022/23).

This is just a long-winded way of saying there’s some stuff here with this team. Now there are still a handful of negatives with this team (bad power play, bad goaltending with some poor net front play sprinkled in, penalty kill due to regress) but the foundation is there for this team to play consistently good hockey when this is cleaned up.

2. “The Challenge”

I don’t want to dive too much into what constitutes goalie interference, but I will die on the hill of not challenging power play goals unless it is a clear and obvious situation where the goal should be disallowed.

I just didn’t see that here:

Is it goalie interference based on how it was called against the Sabres all season? I mean yeah, maybe. Should it be goalie interference based on the laws of the game? No, just like the two Sabres goals that were overturned against the Flames and Hurricanes.

Am I confident enough to challenge this play? Absolutely not, but the Sabres coaching staff gave the green light to a challenge here, the goal was not overturned, and the Flyers went on another power play where they scored their 2nd of the game. They added a 3rd goal against a reeling Sabres team shortly after.

Also, within the context of the game this challenge doesn’t make sense. The team is just coming off a short 3v5 then 4v5 penalty kill so you shouldn’t want to send the team back out on the penalty kill. The goal simply tied the game just 8 minutes into the contest so there was no need for a “Hail Mary” challenge as if they just went down 2 with a few minutes left in the game.

I just don’t understand it and Wednesday’s game felt nothing more than wasteful for a Sabres team that doesn’t have many more opportunities they can afford to waste.

3. New defensive forward has dropped

Which Sabres forward leads the team in Even Strength Defense Goals Above Replacement according to Evolving-Hockey’s model this season? It’s not Josh Doan. It’s not Zach Benson. Not Tyson Kozak.

It’s Noah Ostlund.

His 2.1 EVD GAR is tied for 19th among all NHL forwards so far this season. When Ostlund is on the ice at 5v5, the Sabres have only allowed 2.13 expected goals against every 60 minutes (2nd among 15 Sabres forwards) and 1.91 goals against every 60 minutes (1st among 15 Sabres forwards).

We are still in the “small sample size alert” zone with only 19 NHL games played for Ostlund this season, but the signs are there for a good defensive forward. That’s great news for a player who may need to scale down his game to remain in a fully healthy Sabres lineup.

4. The three goalie (lack of a) plan

I will be the first to admit that I used to be a defender of the three goalie plan. Just a few weeks ago I believed that the Sabres were best served in seeing what they had in a new NHL goalie like Colten Ellis.

Today? They are simply stuck with three mediocre goalies.

Using Evolving-Hockey’s dFSV% (difference is actual and expected save percentage on unblocked shot attempts), the Sabres goalies are simply not impressive. Among the 57 NHL goalies that have faced 300 unblocked shot attempts this season, the Sabres goalies rank 30th (Lyon), 37th (Luukkonen), and 43rd (Ellis) in this stat.

I also feel like this three goalie rotation messes with the vibe. One bad game and you may not see the crease again until 10+ days later.

Carrying three goalies makes sense if you have three goalies that are just playing too well to give a guy up or if the player that force the three goalie rotation (Ellis) is playing exceptionally well. But that is just not the case here.

Pick your two goalies and roll with them even if you have to lose the third via a trade or waivers. Please.

5. When ‘grit’ and ‘analytics’ align 

It’s always an occurrence worth celebrating when a Sabres player can unite the “Sabres need to be tougher” and the “Sabres need to generate more expected goals” community.

Josh Doan leads the Sabres forwards in Goals Above Replacement by a decent margin this season and he also leads the team in DAWG/60 (not a real stat, just a vibes-based stat).

Look at this guy play the game of hockey:

6. Josh Doan: Future American legend?

Am I crazy for having this take? I mean I do legitimately think Josh Doan has a legitimate chance at the Team USA roster for the 2030 Olympics (but he should be in the mix for 2026).

Doan is a younger version of what Bill Guerin thought his fourth line was at the 4 Nations last February,

7. Beer Sabre

I don’t believe I’ve written a newsletter since the “Beer Sabre” has been officially released into action, but what an idea by everyone involved. This is such a cool and unique addition to the game experience.

My one complaint: availability. I think this should be available on every gameday and not just Friday/Saturday night games. I also think they should increase the supply and make it available at multiple spots throughout the arena. You shouldn’t have to wait 45 minutes in line at the one location that serves them.

8. The Comeback Kids

The Rochester Americans came back from down 3-0 against the Utica Comets on Wednesday to tie things up. They would eventually lose the game in extra time, but it was nice to see their top young players step up.

2 goals for Isak Rosen to put him at 16 points in 11 games on the season and a 3-point night for Konsta Helenius who now has 18 points in 22 games at just 19 years old.

9. Sabres at the 2026 World Juniors

It’s almost December 26th and a number of nations participating at the 2026 World Junior Championships in Minnesota have already dropped their preliminary rosters for the event.

Sabres prospects Adam Kleber, Luke Osburn, and Brodie Ziemer have been named to the preliminary roster for Team USA. I expect all three prospects to make the final roster.

Sabres 2025 1st round pick Radim Mrtka was named to the Czechia preliminary roster and he is obviously expected to make the final roster on a loaded blueline.

Finland has yet to release their preliminary roster, but 2024 1st round pick Konsta Helenius is expected to be “the guy” on a fairly decent Finnish team.

10. 2025 7th round picks are heating up

Is this guy really writing about the Sabres three 7th round picks from the 2025 NHL Draft? Yes, I am and for good reason too: all three players are playing some fantastic hockey.

Melvin Novotny made the jump over from Sweden juniors to the USHL this season and has 14 goals and 28 total points (4th in USHL) in 24 games. He’ll be playing his hockey at UMass next fall and should be in the running for a spot on Sweden’s WJC squad next winter:

Now let’s talk about the Belarusian goalie, Yevgeni Prokhorov, who has a .948 SV% through 15 games for Dinamo-Shinnik Bobruysk in the MHL. Now goalie’s save percentages can be juiced up at times in the Russian junior league for goalies on good teams (he has a teammate with a .959 SV% in 6 games) but Prokhorov still deserves his flowers.

Last but not least, there’s Ryan Rucinski. The Ohio State commit has 32 points in 24 games in the USHL for the Youngstown Phantoms, putting him at 2nd in the league scoring race. Rucinski has been a pure generator of offense for this Phantoms team:

11. Gavin McCarthy to Spengler Cup

Clarence native and Sabres 2023 3rd round pick, Gavin McCarthy, has been named to the U.S. Collegiate Selects roster that will be participating at this years Spengler Cup from December 26 to 31 in Davos, Switzerland.

Should be good experience for Boston University’s captain who will be playing alongside some other NHL prospects in this historic tournament.