11 Thoughts on the Sabres: Finally a win

After scoring only two goals in their first three games, the Sabres did exactly what we thought they would do in their fourth game: score 8 goals.

So let’s dive into this new edition of 11 Thoughts on the Sabres after their first week of games:

1. One win down, but still in trouble

The Buffalo Sabres, undoubtedly, needed that win against the Senators on Wednesday night. An 0-3-0 start, especially with how the team looked in some of those games, is extremely concerning. An 0-4-0 start? That may have caused a complete tailspin.

Props to the Sabres though. They battled back from multiple tied game and close positions against the Senators to pull away with an 8-4 victory. They even got some of the puck luck back on their side with this Jack Quinn goal:

Bigger picture? Let’s just look into some expected 5v5 numbers from Evolving-Hockey: 29th in expected goals for % (31st in xGF/60 and 24th in xGA/60), 31st in goals for %.

The Sabres currently have a 41.4 xGF% at 5v5. The last time they had a 50 xGF% or greater was 2010/11 which was the last season they made it to the playoffs. Baseline 5v5 player matters (especially when special teams and goaltending isn’t elite).

Now I will toss out a small sample size alert here, but their 5v5 play simply needs to be better over the course of this season. So it was a fun and enjoyable game against Ottawa, but their bigger picture standard still needs to be raised. This next week of games should be very telling.

2. Benny is back

After watching the season opener from a hospital bed and missing the first three games to injury, Zach Benson made his return to the Sabres lineup where he managed to record 4 assists against the Senators.

It wasn’t a traditional Benson game either. He got crushed at 5v5 (on-ice for 0.26 xGF and 1.07 xGA according to Evolving-Hockey), but he put up points even if some of them were just secondary assists. The 5v5 play will and should get back on track for him, but the point production is the important next step in his evolution as a player.

With Benson, it’s all about the little things in his game. That extra effort paired with his IQ leads to positive plays for his team:

3. Lyon’s net

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen returned to practice for the Buffalo Sabres on Tuesday, but I still think should be Alex Lyon’s net. Sure a #2 goalie will still get a good chunk of games this season since Lyon is turning 33 years old and has not played more than 44 NHL games in a single season.

But I still believe your de facto #1 has to be Lyon at this point. Has he been elite? Not really, but he has still been good. He ranks 15th among 28 qualified goalies in dFSV% (a look at what a goalie’s SV% is relative to what it is expected to be based on shot quantity/quality) this season according to Evolving-Hockey.

It’s a small sample size so far, but when it comes to Sabres goaltending: average = good.

4. Tuch contract updates

An update on the Alex Tuch contract was posted by The Fourth Period yesterday with some quotes from Tuch’s agent, Brian Bartlett:

I was a big “get the Tuch contract done before a team that has started slow the past two seasons starts slow again” because obviously the negotiations can become somewhat team performance-based when we are talking about a team in the midst of a historic playoff drought.

This looks like it has turned into a “wait and see” situation.

5. Josh Doan is a dawg

Which Sabres forward leads the team in 5v5 xGF? It’s not Tage. It’s not Tuch. It’s not Zucker. It’s Josh Doan with a 62.2 xGF% at 5v5 (he’s one of only two Sabres forwards with greater than a 50 xGF%).

The points? Well he picked up 3 against Ottawa on Wednesday night. He’s a smart hockey player who plays with that dawg-type edge in his game. If he’s able to continue the production then his game should be scalable further up the lineup.

Check out Doan’s work leading up to this goal:

6. Zach Metsa called up to Buffalo

At 26 years old, defenseman Zach Metsa has finally earned an NHL call-up. The Amerks captain has been a do-it-all type of player down in the AHL. He originally signed an AHL contract in 2023 after a five-year career at Quinnipiac. Metsa finally earned that NHL contract this summer.

7. Colten Eliis situation

With Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen possibly coming off of the injured reserve soon, the Sabres will face a decision when it comes to their latest waiver claim in Colten Ellis

Do the Sabres keep three goalies? Do they waive Ellis? You would have to think there would be some league-wide interest in the 25-year-old goaltender if placed on waivers. I would have liked to see what they have in him at the NHL level but there hasn’t been ideal situation for him to get a spot start through these first few games.

Maybe he will go down in Sabres folklore alongside Jaroslav Halak and Axel Jonsson-Fjallby: players who were technically Sabres at one point but have no recorded games in the organization.

8. Lindy’s favorite: Mason Geertsen

It may have made sense to have Mason Geertsen in the lineup in 2002, but the enforcer that gets under 5 minutes of ice time each night has been slowly phased out of the game.

However, Lindy Ruff is still a big fan of Mason Geertsen. I mean he did make his NHL debut under Ruff in New Jersey back in the Devils’ poor 2021/22 season, which was also the last season he appeared in an NHL game. 12 seasons into his pro hockey career and Mason Geertsen has yet to play an NHL game under a coach not named Lindy Ruff.

The thing with NHL enforcers is that they have actual game-playing roles these days. Matt Rempe, the Rangers’ enforcer, has 12+ minutes of ice time on three separate occasions already this season. He’s been an actual useful piece on his team’s fourth line. Rempe wasn’t going to drop the gloves against the Sabres when the Rangers had all of the momentum from puck drop.

Nikita Zadorov, the Bruins’ defenseman who Mason Geertsen was jawing with on his way to the bench, has gotten 20+ minutes in 4 of 5 games so far this season. He has been a big part of his teams’ early success. Once again, he is not a player who will drop the gloves when his team has the momentum and he has an actual hockey-playing role.

In his two games this season, Mason Geertsen has 9:14 TOI, 2 penalty minutes, and a -1 rating. You can’t tango without a dance partner, so it will be interesting to see how Ruff will continue to manage this “enforcer” role throughout this season.

9. Sabres power play…isn’t terrible?

After a brutal start to the season in terms of scoring actual goals on the power play, the Sabres managed to score 3 goals on the power play against the Senators. This boosts them up to an average, but somewhat respectable 21.4% conversion rate on the man advantage.

Their 7.63 goals for per 60 at 5v4 this season is good enough for 11th in the NHL, their 53.5 shots for per 60 at 5v4 is 8th in the NHL, and their 8.96 expected goals per 60 at 5v4 is 15th in the NHL.

It’s going to need a lot more juice to make up for their lackluster 5v5 play, but it’s something at least.

10. Brodie Ziemer apprecation post

5 points in 5 games at the University of Minnesota this season for the Sabres’ 2024 3rd round pick. Brodie Ziemer is the definition of a “hockey guy” and I expect him to be given a large role on the US squad during this winter’s World Juniors.

Expect a lot more talk about him in hockey circles around New Year’s.

11. Sabres lines finding a balance

Maybe it’s just the high from the 8-goal game talking, but I really don’t mind the Sabres lines as they are now (with the personnel that is currently available). They seem to have found a good blend of energy and skill on each forward line and even the defense pairs look ok to me.

Ask me again about this after the Panthers game and my opinion will probably be different, but for now I can’t complain: