11 Thoughts on the Buffalo Sabres...

What’s up everyone.

It’s been a rough season, but we’ve still got a lot to talk about…

Starting today, we’re kicking off a new weekly series with 11 thoughts on the Sabres and the NHL from the past week.

(Thanks to Elliotte Friedman for the inspiration… If anyone has a better name, let us know 😂 )

Anyways… It’s been an interesting 7 days, here’s what we got:

1. Rasmus Dahlin and the rumors

Things got a little spicy for the Buffalo Sabres in an episode of the podcast Spittin’ Chiclets this past week when Paul Bissonnette said, “Apparently Dahlin met with Kevyn Adams and he said that if this doesn’t turn around fast I’m gonezos.”

That clip from the podcast spread like wildfire, even making its way to the Sabres locker room just a few hours later when Rasmus Dahlin was asked about it. Dahlin seemed a bit surprised about the rumor and the Sabres were quick (maybe a little too quick) to produce a graphic confirming Dahlin’s desire to stay in Buffalo:

You have to love when graphics are necessary to confirm that your star play does not want to leave.

Just this morning, Elliotte Friedman released an episode of 32 Thoughts: The Podcast titled “All Good in Buffalo.” Friedman confirms that Dahlin requested to meet with Kevyn Adams and that Dahlin “left that meeting satisfied with what he heard and now they just have to put it in action.”

It is worth remembering that Jack Eichel also met with the ownership and GM to discuss the direction of the team prior to his last full season as a Buffalo Sabre:

As the team captain, it is absolutely necessary for somebody like Rasmus Dahlin to meet with Kevyn Adams to discuss the future of this team. The team’s inactivity from the front office has been noted in that locker room. The losing is obviously experienced by the players in the room day in and day out.

Pressure from star players has been one of the few things that has been able to force action from the Sabres front office and ownership since 2020.

Eichel’s meeting in 2020 led to a big spending offseason highlighted by bringing in Taylor Hall. Friedman speculates in his latest podcast that the Dahlin meeting leading to the Cozens/Norris swap wasn’t a coincidence.

The players can absolutely pull some levers in Buffalo to get things done and it appears that the process has already began.

2. I’ll believe it when I see it

In terms of organizational job security next season (particularly organizational job security in the Sabres’ GM office) I will be taking the “I’ll believe it when I see it approach” until this offseason.

Why? Well there is still a good amount of hockey left to be played. There are 18 games left in the Sabres season. Things have gone south in their last 8 games, going 1-6-1 and getting outscored 38 to 20 in those games.

Also, the Sabres are starting to see an uptick in national media coverage. Whether true or not, the narrative of former Sabres players thriving when they leave is getting attention again with Dylan Cozens being moved to a hot Ottawa team. Paul Bissonette also stoked the fire with his Rasmus Dahlin rumor leading to a full 10-minute segment on 32 Thoughts: The Podcast this week.

If there’s one thing I have learned about the new Buffalo Sabres it is that they are perfectly fine with no attention.

I think about their 2023/24 season. Extremely underwhelming but not bad enough to draw league-wide attention. Their GM was allowed to come back for another season and they had a quiet offseason where they revamped their roster while leaving a fair amount of question marks on it.

Once that attention turns negative then I do not think this organization will be afraid to act swiftly.

3. New and “improved” 4th line

The Sabres spent a lot of time trying to improve the 4th line this offseason. They traded a 2nd round pick for Beck Malentsyn, signed Sam Lafferty and Nicolas Aube-Kubel. The focus was on speed and physicality, a line that would be tough to play against.

Well, their 4th line is (unsurprisingly) extremely easy to play against.

According to Evolving-Hockey, the Zemgus Girgensons and Kyle Okposo duo posted a 47.1 expected GF% and a 45.5 actual GF% at 5v5 for the Buffalo Sabres last season. The Sam Lafferty and Beck Malenstyn combo has a 42.1 expected GF% and a 33.3 actual GF% at 5v5 this season.

The Lafferty and Malenstyn combo has been outscored at a 2-to-1 rate when on the ice together at 5v5. They have been on the ice for 6 goals for and 12 goals against. And this was a unit that was supposed to be improved? Yikes.

4. Timelines

One thing that comes with being a team in the middle of a historic playoff drought: it’s difficult to have timelines overlap.

Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart’s last season in the blue and gold came right before Tage Thompson’s first 30-goal NHL season (and his first NHL season with more than 14 points). Rasmus Dahlin would solidify himself as a Norris contender the following season.

Any normal NHL team would be enjoying their accumulated talent having their primes overlap. The Sabres would seem a lot less cursed if they were able to sneak in just one playoff series during the Eichel and Reinhart era. Maybe both players wouldn’t have requested trades if that were the case.

History can repeat itself and the Sabres need to find success or else we may have to be watching Rasmus Dahlin and Tage Thompson in different uniforms in a few seasons.

5. The UConn Huskies and Jake Richard

March Madness is not only in full swing for basketball, it’s heating up for hockey as well. Keep an eye on Sabres’ 2022 6th round pick, Jake Richard. He has 35 points in 29 games for the 7th ranked UConn Huskies including 18 points in his last 10 games.

Richard is still only 20 years old and has been playing great hockey alongside his linemate Joey Muldowney, a San Jose Sharks draft pick from Lake View, NY. The Huskies have a big game against Providence in the Hockey East tournament tonight and you can check out that game on ESPN+.

6. Sabres making history

Since 2007/08, there have been 34 NHL teams who have produced 2.85 or more goals per 60 minutes at 5v5. 33 of those 34 teams made it to the playoffs. The only team who did not make it to the playoffs? The 2022/23 Buffalo Sabres.

This season’s Buffalo Sabres are currently scoring at a 2.86 5v5 goals per 60 minutes rate, good enough for third in the NHL behind the Washington Capitals and Columbus Blue Jackets. The Sabres are set to make history once again and not in a good way.

7. Tage and Team USA

Since the Four Nations break, Tage Thompson has 8 goals in 10 games. He was sitting in the press box during the USA-Canada championship game where he saw the trio that snuck onto that roster ahead of him struggle against the Canadians. It’s tough to trust Bill Guerin’s international roster decisions at times, but Tage will certainly be in the running for that Olympics roster.

8. No palm trees? No problem?

This Buffalo Sabres season has been characterized by the city’s apparent lack of palm trees. It’s why I found this clip of the Buffalo Bills’ new signing, Michael Hoecht, to be interesting. Maybe winning games is more important than tropical flora?

9. The CHL/NCAA and NHL draft rights

There was a major shake-up in the junior hockey world this season with CHL players now being eligible to play NCAA hockey. What does that mean for NHL teams’ rights on drafted CHL prospects who opt to play NCAA hockey after their CHL eligibility? Sounds like we will soon find out according to Darren Dreger:

In terms of Sabres prospects this could impact, I would keep an eye on Ethan Miedema. The Sabres’ 2023 4th round pick was the 4th overall pick in the 2021 OHL Priority Selection draft but hasn’t live up to the hype in the OHL. Miedema only has 54 points in 61 games as a 19-year-old forward on Kingston.

His counting stats may not be enough to receive an entry-level contract after this season, but a few seasons in the NCAA where the Sabres get to retain his rights could be intriguing. The 6’4” and 212 lb forward certainly has an interesting skillset that may not be fully refined yet.

10. From happiness to sadness in one trade

We all know about how being a Sabres fan can affect one’s mental health. But what about being a Sabres player? The Ottawa Senators are 4-0-0 since acquiring Dylan Cozens and sending Josh Norris to the Buffalo Sabres. The Senators have also scored 17 goals in those 4 games.

It is a party in Ottawa as they find themselves comfortably in a wild card spot and a somber yet familiar funeral in Buffalo as they approach their 14th consecutive season without a playoff appearance. Certainly not an easy situation for Josh Norris right now, especially after leaving some great friends he had in Ottawa. The human side of the game is always there.

11. St. Patrick’s Day weekend against the Golden Knights

There is nothing Buffalo loves more than a Sabres game on a big drinking day. In a just world, this game would be a massive tilt for the Sabres’ playoff chances in front of a rowdy crowd as they take on Jack Eichel. The crowd will still be rowdy but the game just doesn’t mean much. Maybe next year.